United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang sees USD/JPY continuing to consolidate just below the 2024 high of 162.00, with intraday trading expected between 161.45 and 161.95. Despite fading momentum, the bank retains a mildly positive 1–3 week view as long as support at 161.25 holds, and longer-term analysis still allows scope to test the top of a rising wedge.

Risk of break above 162.00 still intact

“24-HOUR VIEW: We indicated last Friday that USD “could trade between 161.45 and 161.95.” USD then traded within a range of 161.51/161.84, closing largely unchanged at 161.73 (-0.03%). The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect USD to trade between 161.45 and 161.95.”

“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held the same view since 19 Jun (spot at 161.25), when we indicated that USD “could rise to the 2024 high of 162.00.” Since then, USD has been consolidating just below 162.00. Upward momentum is fading, but the risk of a break above 162.00 will remain intact as long as 161.25 (‘strong support’ level previously at 161.10) is not breached.”

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