Despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) revising up growth and inflation forecasts, political and fiscal risks are dominating yen dynamics and muting the usual USD/JPY response, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Japan politics overshadow monetary policy signals

“On another day, today’s Bank of Japan meeting might have sent USD/JPY a little lower. Growth and inflation forecasts were revised up and the BoJ seemed to be showing concerns about potential labour shortages and what it could mean for wages.”

“However, the political/fiscal story is dominating in Japan. Were PM Sanae Takaichi to prove successful in securing an LDP majority in elections on 8 February, JGB yields would rise again and the yen would be hit on fiscal concerns.”

“We’ve got a slightly bullish USD/JPY bias into that election event risk – especially should US activity data continue to perform well.”

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