Lumber futures have been moving in a tight range between $575 and $585 per thousand board feet as broader uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions weigh on sentiment. The US has recently outlined preliminary antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber, with the antidumping rate reduced from 20.6% to 10.7% and the countervailing duty trimmed from 14.6% to 14.2%, lowering the combined rate to about 25.9%. Including an existing 10% Section 232 tariff, total effective duties on Canadian imports are expected to remain near 35.9% once they take effect in August. Despite these measures aimed at supporting domestic producers, US sawmill utilization remains relatively weak at around 64%, with capacity use trending lower since 2017, pointing to limited supply response. At the same time, elevated construction costs and high interest rates are continuing to pressure housing activity, with US builder confidence slipping to its lowest level since September 2025.

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