Morning Wrap: US Indices rise ahead of CPI and Fed Chair Warsh speech

Key takeaways

• Markets await US CPI report at 1:30 PM GMT
• Futures on US indices gain after the ”green’ session in Asia
• Major American banks will report quarterly earnings before the bell

• After a positive session in Asia, where the Nikkei, Hang Seng, and KOSPI all advanced, European index futures are trading higher, while U.S. futures are also pointing to a stronger open, with the US100 up around 0.7% and the US500 gaining about 0.5% . Today’s key events include earnings reports from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs , as well as the release of the latest U.S. CPI inflation data at 1:30 PM GMT.
• The new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh will testify at Committee at 3 PM GMT and it’s very important event during this today session . Secondary macroeconomic releases include the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and the ADP employment report .
• Gold, silver, and Bitcoin are posting modest gains of just under 1% . Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is edging slightly lower after its recent rally, which was fueled by higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Oil is extending its gains today, rising nearly 2% to around $84 per barrel .
• In Germany, wholesale prices fell 0.7% month-on-month in June, following a 0.6% decline in the previous month, while annual wholesale inflation slowed to 4.9% from 5.9% . Around 45 minutes before the European cash open, the DE40 (DAX) futures contract was trading marginally higher.
• According to Semafor , the Trump administration is proposing a 20% fee on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz . For a fully loaded oil supertanker, such a charge could amount to roughly $30 million .
• Semafor also reports that the United States has reimposed a naval blockade on Iran , with President Donald Trump formally notifying Congress of the decision. The shipping industry reacted with surprise, citing a lack of prior notice and implementation details. Iran’s foreign minister acknowledged that secure passage could justify transit fees but argued that a 20% charge would be excessive .
• Yesterday, UBS lowered its price targets for Meta Platforms to $766 from $865 and for Alphabet to $400 from $410 , while Bank of America raised its price target for AMD to $620 from $550 .
• According to The Washington Post , the Trump administration and AI industry leaders are discussing a regulatory framework aimed at accelerating the commercialization of U.S. open-source AI models. Under the proposal, the capability ceiling of these models would be aligned with that of the leading Chinese open-source AI models.
• Morgan Stanley expects U.S. hyperscaler capital expenditures to reach $1.2 trillion by 2027 . Meanwhile, Nvidia partner GMI Cloud , a cloud computing infrastructure provider, is seeking $635 million in external financing backed by its GPU assets.
• Global smartphone shipments fell 11% year-over-year in the second quarter, marking the weakest Q2 since 2013 . A shortage of memory chips has pushed up handset prices and weakened demand, with Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo among the hardest hit. Samsung regained its position as the global market leader, while Apple reached a record 20% global market share . At the same time, robust AI-driven demand continues to support memory chip manufacturers.

US500 (M15 interval)

Source: xStation5

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