Nickel futures rose above $18,500 per tonne in January, hitting its highest level in more than two years, supported by strong investor sentiment and renewed concerns over supply from top producer Indonesia. Prices have surged sharply since mid-December as financial inflows intensified in metals markets, particularly in China, driving momentum across nickel futures on both London and Shanghai exchanges. Market sentiment has been underpinned by expectations that Indonesia may tighten supply in 2026. The government signaled plans to cut its 2026 nickel mining quota and tighten enforcement through fines on miners violating forestry permits, raising concerns over potential output disruptions. Despite the rally, the nickel market remains structurally oversupplied, with LME inventories at multi-year highs. Analysts caution that the recent gains have been driven more by financial flows and policy risk premiums than by a sustained improvement in supply-demand fundamentals.

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