MUFG analysts note that NOK has outperformed most European peers during the Middle East conflict, supported by Norway’s energy exporter status and a hawkish repricing of Norges Bank policy. They expect rising energy prices and higher yields to underpin NOK near term, while warning that a much larger Oil spike and global slowdown risk could eventually erode this support.

Oil-linked strength and rate hike prospects

“Rising energy prices are likely to continue supporting NOK in the near term. However, a much larger oil price spike could eventually become less supportive if it heightens concerns over a sharper global slowdown or recession.”

“At the same time, the NOK has received near‑term support from the hawkish repricing of the Norges Bank’s policy outlook. At its latest policy meeting last week, the Norges Bank stated clearly that it “will likely be appropriate to raise the policy rate at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings.””

“Given that inflation has been above target for several years, the Norges Bank feels compelled to respond to the upside risks. The disinflationary impact of the stronger NOK will help dampen imported inflation, but it is not sufficient to alleviate the Bank’s concerns over persistent inflation pressures.”

“As a result, the Norges Bank is planning to raise rates by 25–50bps in 2026.”

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