Danske Research notes that Norway’s March core inflation remained at 3.0% year-on-year, slightly below consensus and in line with Norges Bank’s projection, while headline inflation printed at 3.6% year-on-year. The Norwegian wage settlement points to 4.4% wage growth in 2026, seen as neutral for Norges Bank. Markets now price roughly equal odds of a rate hike in May versus June.

Norges Bank timing seen as wide open

“Norway’s March core inflation held at 3.0% y/y, below the 3.1% y/y consensus and in line with Norges Bank’s forecast, while headline inflation was 3.6% y/y, slightly higher than Norges Bank’s forecast at 3.5% y/y.”

“The Norwegian wage settlement ended with a central pay raise that is expected to result in overall wage growth of 4.4% in 2026.”

“This is at the upper end of our expectations but is marginally lower than what Norges Bank assumed in the monetary policy report in March. Hence, the outcome should be neutral for Norges Bank.”

“With Norges Bank back in March guiding towards a hike at “one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings”, the prints were regarded as more important than usual for the near-term pricing of May vs June as the most likely time for the first hike. With these prints the rate decision in May remains wide open, as markets are pricing approximately a 50/50 chance of a hike.”

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