BNY’s Bob Savage reports that Brent and WTI surged around 4–5% as Iran–Israel missile exchanges raised fears of supply disruption and higher global inflation. Savage notes EU natural gas also climbed, while OPEC+ members agreed a modest 188,000 b/d production increase from July 2026 with flexibility to adjust. The balance between conflict risk and incremental supply will guide Oil pricing near term.

Middle East tensions drive crude higher

“WTI up 4.7% to $94.80, Brent up 4.7% to $97.50 – both reflect Iran/Israel missile exchanges and doubts about President Trump’s 60-day ceasefire negotiations.”

“EU natural gas also moved higher, up 5% to €51.2, the most in three weeks, linked to the same fears of ongoing supply disruption.”

“Draws could rise further to around 11 mb/d in June.”

“Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman said they will implement a combined oil production hike of 188,000 b/d in July 2026.”

“The group said the move reflects a cautious approach to supporting market stability amid evolving market conditions, while retaining full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phased withdrawal of cuts, including those announced in November 2023.”

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