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ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices are firmer as optimism over a potential US–Iran deal fades, keeping supply risks elevated. They highlight continued flows through the Strait of Hormuz despite disruptions and stress that Middle East tensions and tight refined product stocks skew risks to the upside for Oil into the Northern hemisphere winter.
Headline-driven market with upside risks
“Oil prices are trading stronger as optimism over a US-Iran deal fades, leaving the market to reprice ongoing supply disruptions”
“By this point, you’d think markets would be largely immune to headlines about a US–Iran deal. The pattern keeps repeating — initial enthusiasm when negotiations appear promising, only for that optimism to dissipate just as quickly. Yet the oil market remains very headline-driven, which leaves prices whipsawing.”
“Current rhetoric suggests any potential deal is still some way off, meaning risks remain skewed to the upside for oil prices.”
“Oil continues to move through the Strait of Hormuz even as disruptions persist, underscoring the market’s ability to keep flows moving despite periodic turbulence.”
“According to reports, Iraq’s state oil marketing company said oil shipments are around 2m b/d in August.”
“Prior to the war, Iraq was exporting around 3.4m b/d of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.”
