ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that Oil prices have steadied after US President Donald Trump extended the Iran energy deadline to 6 April, easing immediate pressure but maintaining a geopolitical premium. They highlight that significant supply remains at risk and see risks skewed to the upside, with ongoing regional tensions and disrupted LNG flows tightening global energy markets.

Geopolitics keeps Oil risk skewed higher

“Extending the ceasefire takes some near-term heat out of the market, but risks still lean to the upside.”

“The scale of supply at risk remains significant – around 8 million barrels per day are already offline, and a much larger volume of flows through the Gulf remains vulnerable – so the geopolitical premium is unlikely to fade meaningfully.”

“With both sides continuing attacks and the US reportedly reinforcing its military presence in the region, concerns over supply disruptions remain elevated.”

“For the LNG market, supply risks have intensified after a tropical cyclone forced production cuts at three Australian LNG plants, together accounting for around 8% of global supply.”

“The disruptions come on top of earlier shocks from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of Qatar’s largest liquefaction facility following attacks, further tightening an already strained market and increasing price pressure for Asian buyers.”

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