Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects Poland’s National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep its base rate unchanged for an extended period, with forward markets already pricing out medium-term cuts after the Iran-related energy shock. Mixed inflation signals and a more benign outlook versus the Russia–Ukraine episode support a wait-and-see stance, which the bank views as modestly supportive for the Polish Zloty (PLN).

Flat rates seen modestly zloty supportive

“Poland’s National Bank (NBP) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision later today: it is unanimously expected that the base rate will stay unchanged today (and probably for an extended period).”

“Rate cut bets were priced out for the medium-term when the energy price shock from the Iran conflict materialised. Most MPC members indicated that the March rate cut had been the last for the foreseeable future.”

“NBP chief, Adam Glapinski, whose view is paramount, expressed optimism earlier during April that the inflation shock this time around might turn out to be more benign than that following the Russia-Ukraine war, with the base-case remaining for no change in interest rates in the near future.”

“The press conference tomorrow will shed more light on how exactly Glapinski and his teammates are assessing current developments. Our impression is that as long as a deal between the US and Iran keeps getting touted as imminent, and the oil price is reacting favourably (even if gradually) to this, then NBP is unlikely to hike the rate.”

“For now, policymakers suggest waiting until at least the July meeting to examine updated inflation projections and then decide.”

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