The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in a unanimous decision at its June meeting, in line with market expectations, as the effects of the three increases earlier this year continue to feed through the economy. The Board noted that financial conditions are now tighter than before, with signs that economic activity is slowing. Nonetheless, policymakers warned that inflation remains elevated, extending the material pickup seen in H2 2025, driven by stronger capacity pressures and higher fuel and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict. While oil prices have eased recently, they remain above pre-conflict levels, with evidence of pass-through to goods and services. Meanwhile, labour market conditions are mixed, with higher unemployment in April but other indicators of labour market health proving more resilient. Business investment also remains solid, and credit is readily available.

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