The yield on Russia’s 10-year OFZ bond rose past 16%, its highest level since February 2025, driven by heavy domestic issuance and budget uncertainty. Cut off from international financing by sanctions, the Kremlin relies on expensive local debt to fund its wartime economy. Over the next decade, debt service interest is projected to consume at least 15% of gross domestic product. Defense spending this year is expected to surge by up to 5 trillion rubles, roughly 40% above the initial budget. Consequently, the budget deficit widened to 6 trillion rubles in the first five months of the year, exceeding the full 2026 target by about 60%. Despite reaching the state debt ceiling, parliament rushed through legislation allowing an additional 2 to 3 trillion rubles in borrowing. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia recently cut its benchmark interest rate to 14.25%, warning that structural primary budget deficits lasting until 2029 could necessitate tighter monetary policy later on.

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