Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Bears Retain Control Below $64.75–$64.85

Today Markets Analysis: Silver begins the new week on a subdued footing, holding just above $64.00 as traders remain reluctant to establish large directional positions ahead of a heavy central-bank calendar. The technical structure remains bearish, with XAG/USD trading below key resistance around $64.75–$64.91.

Central Banks Put Silver Traders on Alert

Silver is entering the week with monetary policy firmly in focus.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its latest interest-rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday.

For silver, the central-bank decisions are particularly important because the metal does not generate interest income. Expectations for interest rates and real yields can therefore have a significant influence on investor demand.

A more hawkish-than-expected Fed could reinforce the dollar and pressure precious metals, while a more dovish policy signal could provide silver with renewed upside momentum.

$64.75–$64.91 Remains the Key Technical Barrier

The immediate technical picture continues to favour sellers.

XAG/USD remains below:

• $64.78 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
• $64.91 — 200-period SMA on the four-hour chart
• $64.75–$64.85 — broader resistance/confluence zone

The MACD remains below zero, while the RSI around 42 indicates that momentum has weakened following the recent pullback.

This combination suggests that buyers have yet to regain sufficient momentum to challenge the recent highs.

A sustained move above the 200-period SMA would therefore be important because it would begin to undermine the current bearish technical structure.

Silver Support Levels Come Into Focus

If sellers maintain control, the first significant downside reference is the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $62.86.

Below that level, attention turns to:

A sustained break below $62.86 would increase the probability of a deeper correction toward $60.94.

Conversely, reclaiming $64.78 and then breaking decisively above $64.91 would weaken the bearish setup.

Bulls Need to Reclaim $64.91

The upside path is relatively clear.

A sustained move above the 200-period SMA could expose the next resistance around $67.15, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

Beyond that, traders would likely turn their attention toward the previous cycle-high region around $70.99.

The distinction is important: an intraday move above $64.91 would not necessarily invalidate the bearish structure. The market would need to hold above the level and demonstrate acceptance before the technical outlook meaningfully changes.

Currency Hedger: Silver Is Also a Dollar and Rates Trade

From a Currency Hedger perspective, silver’s next major move could be determined as much by the dollar and interest-rate expectations as by precious-metals-specific factors.

Silver sits at the intersection of several markets:

Fed policy → US yields → US dollar → precious-metals demand → XAG/USD

If US yields rise and the dollar strengthens, the cost of holding a non-yielding metal can increase for investors, creating additional pressure on silver.

However, a dovish Fed outcome could produce the opposite reaction, particularly if falling yields weaken the dollar.

That makes Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision the week’s most important macro catalyst for XAG/USD.

What Traders Are Watching Next

The key levels and catalysts are:

• $64.78: first major Fibonacci resistance
• $64.91: 200-period H4 SMA and key bearish-bias invalidation area
• $67.15: next upside resistance
• $70.99: cycle-high region
• $62.86: first major downside support
• $60.94: next downside target
• Fed decision: Wednesday
• BoE decision: Thursday
• BoJ decision: Friday
• US dollar and Treasury yields: critical cross-market indicators

Today Markets View

Silver remains technically vulnerable while it trades below the $64.75–$64.91 resistance zone.

The current setup favours further downside, but the market is approaching a major macroeconomic test. The Federal Reserve’s decision could rapidly change the relationship between yields, the dollar and precious metals.

Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets:

“Silver’s technical structure remains bearish, but traders should be careful not to treat the current pattern in isolation. The Fed decision could quickly alter the dollar and Treasury-yield environment that is driving precious metals. For now, $64.91 is the critical level. A failure below it keeps the downside structure intact, while sustained acceptance above it would signal that buyers are beginning to regain control.”

Bottom Line

XAG/USD remains around $64, with bears retaining the technical advantage below $64.75–$64.91.

A break below $62.86 would open the door toward $60.94, while a sustained recovery above $64.91 would weaken the bearish case and put $67.15 back into focus.

For both Today Markets and Currency Hedger, the key issue this week is the interaction between silver, the US dollar and central-bank policy rather than technical levels alone.

Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets.
Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence.

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