The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa declined by 1.8% month-on-month in April 2026, slipping from a downwardly revised 1.5% increase in the previous month. The latest reading marked the first month of contraction since September last year, driven largely by a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply and a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved. Overall, 8 out of the 10 available component time series declined and outweighed increases in the volume of domestic orders received in the manufacturing sector and the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s major trading-partner countries. The composite coincident business cycle indicator remained unchanged in March 2026, due to an increase in the real value of wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, which was partially offset by a decrease in the industrial production index.

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