US soybean futures have fallen below $12.90 per bushel, reaching a four-week low as uncertainty over Chinese demand weighs on the market. The latest US-China trade arrangement includes tariff reductions for several US agricultural products, but soybeans remain excluded, leaving US supplies facing an additional tariff and reducing the immediate incentive for Chinese buyers.

The demand picture is not entirely negative. Chinese state-owned buyers have already purchased more than 12 million tonnes of US soybeans, while recent US export activity has strengthened. However, the absence of new purchase commitments and the limited duration of the latest trade-truce extension leave traders focused on whether Chinese demand can accelerate as the US harvest progresses.

At the same time, the US soybean harvest is advancing in line with the five-year average, while crop conditions remain relatively strong.

Market Snapshot

Current Soybean Price Action

Soybean futures have declined below $12.90 per bushel, reaching their lowest level in four weeks.

The selling reflects concerns that the latest trade agreement does not provide the immediate improvement in Chinese soybean demand that traders had hoped for.

The market is particularly sensitive to the distinction between potential Chinese purchases and confirmed new commitments. More than 12 million tonnes of US soybeans have already been purchased by Chinese state-owned buyers, but the absence of additional commitments leaves uncertainty over the pace of future demand.

With the US harvest progressing, traders are increasingly focused on whether export demand will be strong enough to absorb new-crop supplies.

China Trade Remains the Central Demand Issue

The latest US-China trade arrangement provides tariff reductions across a range of agricultural products, including corn, wheat, vegetable oils, meat and dairy, while US soybeans remain excluded.

That distinction is particularly important because China is the dominant destination for US soybean exports.

The continued additional tariff reduces the competitiveness of US soybeans relative to alternative origins and gives Chinese buyers less incentive to increase purchases from the United States.

For the soybean market, the key question is whether existing Chinese commitments can continue to build despite the tariff structure.

Existing Chinese Purchases Provide Some Support

Chinese state-owned buyers have already purchased more than 12 million tonnes of US soybeans, representing a substantial portion of the annual volume referenced in the current trade discussions.

USDA export-sales announcements also show continuing soybean sales to China, including a reported 120,000-tonne sale for the 2026/27 marketing year on September 24.

This suggests that the tariff situation has not completely stopped US-China soybean trade.

However, traders are looking for evidence of a sustained increase in buying rather than isolated transactions. Until additional large purchases emerge, the market may continue to price a more uncertain Chinese demand outlook.

US Export Activity Is Improving

US soybean export inspections increased to approximately 1.15 million tonnes, compared with 769,698 tonnes previously.

The improvement is a positive demand signal and provides some counterweight to the concerns surrounding China.

If export activity continues to strengthen through the early stages of the new marketing year, it could help absorb the additional supply arriving from the US harvest.

The destination mix will be particularly important. Stronger demand from countries outside China could reduce some of the pressure created by the current US-China trade relationship.

Harvest Progress Keeps Supply Pressure in Focus

The US soybean harvest is approximately 17% complete, matching the five-year average.

This means the market is moving deeper into the period when physical supplies become increasingly available.

A harvest progressing on schedule reduces concerns about immediate supply disruption, while the relatively strong crop rating of 58% good-to-excellent supports expectations for substantial production.

The combination of increasing supply and uncertain Chinese demand creates a challenging fundamental backdrop for soybean prices.

Crop Conditions Remain Relatively Strong

The soybean crop remains rated 58% good-to-excellent, unchanged from the previous week.

Stable crop conditions are important because they reduce the likelihood of a significant late-season production shock.

Unless weather conditions deteriorate materially, traders are likely to focus increasingly on actual harvested yields, farmer selling and export demand rather than concerns over crop development.

Bullish Sentiment

1. US export inspections are improving — The latest 1.15 MMT figure represents a meaningful increase from the previous week.
2. Chinese purchases are continuing — More than 12 MMT of US soybeans have already been purchased by Chinese state-owned buyers.
3. Additional Chinese purchases remain possible — Continued trade negotiations leave the potential for changes in soybean purchasing arrangements.
4. Global soybean demand remains important — Strong demand from destinations outside China could help offset weaker US-China flows.
5. Lower prices could attract demand — A four-week low may encourage commercial buyers to increase coverage if physical demand remains firm.

Bearish Sentiment

1. Soybeans remain excluded from Chinese tariff reductions — The additional tariff continues to discourage US soybean purchases.
2. No fresh major purchase commitment — Existing purchases have not yet been followed by a new large commitment under the latest trade arrangement.
3. US harvest is progressing normally — Increasing physical availability is creating seasonal supply pressure.
4. Crop conditions remain favorable — The 58% good-to-excellent rating supports expectations for solid production.
5. Trade uncertainty remains elevated — The latest truce extension provides additional negotiation time but does not resolve the underlying soybean tariff issue.

Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching

The soybean market is increasingly dependent on the balance between US harvest supply and export demand.

The immediate downside pressure is being driven by uncertainty over Chinese purchases, particularly because soybeans remain outside the latest tariff reductions.

However, continued export inspections and additional Chinese purchases could begin to stabilize the market if demand proves stronger than currently expected.

The key signal will be whether Chinese buying accelerates as the US harvest expands. A sustained increase in purchases could change the market’s demand outlook, while continued limited buying would leave the expanding US supply base as the dominant price pressure.

Supply Outlook

US soybean supplies are increasing as harvest progresses at the five-year average pace.

The 58% good-to-excellent crop rating also indicates that production expectations remain relatively firm.

With more physical soybeans entering the market, storage capacity, farmer selling and export demand will become increasingly important.

The supply outlook could become more bearish if harvest yields confirm strong production while Chinese demand remains constrained.

Demand Outlook

Demand remains the central uncertainty.

US export inspections have improved, and USDA data continues to show soybean sales to China.

However, the current tariff structure makes the Chinese market less supportive for US producers than it would be under a broader tariff reduction.

Traders will therefore be watching whether China increases purchases despite the remaining tariff or shifts more demand toward competing origins.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Soybean traders will be watching:

• Chinese soybean purchase announcements
• US export inspections
• US harvest progress
• Soybean yield results
• Crop-condition changes
• Developments in US-China trade negotiations
• Competing South American supplies
• Farmer selling as harvest accelerates
• The US dollar and its effect on export competitiveness

The soybean market is entering a crucial period where new-crop supply is increasing while the outlook for its largest export destination remains uncertain.

A pickup in Chinese purchases could provide an important source of support, while continued trade restrictions combined with a strong harvest could keep prices under pressure.

Currency Hedger View

Soybeans demonstrate the close relationship between commodity prices, international trade and currency markets.

US soybeans are priced in US dollars, meaning movements in the dollar can influence their competitiveness for international buyers. A stronger dollar can increase the effective cost for overseas purchasers, while a weaker dollar can improve the competitiveness of US agricultural exports.

For businesses involved in soybean trading, agricultural imports, food production or international commodity transactions, managing the underlying currency exposure can therefore be an important part of managing overall commercial risk.

The uncertainty surrounding US-China soybean trade also demonstrates why commodity exposure and FX exposure should not always be viewed separately.

Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates.

Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets

Soybean futures are under pressure as US harvest supply increases while the outlook for Chinese demand remains uncertain.

The exclusion of soybeans from the latest Chinese tariff reductions is the central issue for the market, particularly because China remains such an important destination for US production. Existing Chinese purchases provide some support, while improving US export inspections demonstrate that international demand has not disappeared.

The next important signal will be whether Chinese buying accelerates despite the remaining tariff. If it does, the current supply pressure could begin to ease. If purchases remain limited while harvest progresses normally, soybean futures could remain vulnerable to further selling.

Louis Roche – Today Markets

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