Soybean Price Forecast: Futures Hit Eight-Week Low Despite China’s 1.472 Million-Tonne Buying Spree

Soybean futures have slipped to around $12.50 per bushel, reaching their lowest level in eight weeks as advancing US harvesting and favourable Midwest weather forecasts outweigh renewed Chinese demand. Despite the recent weakness, confirmed purchases by China are providing an important source of support, with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reporting another 114,000 metric tonnes in private sales on Monday.

China’s confirmed purchases of US soybeans have reached 1.472 million tonnes over the past four days, as the world’s largest soybean buyer moves towards its 25-million-tonne purchasing target for the 2026/27 marketing year under the trade agreement between the two countries. However, with US harvesting progressing and drier weather expected to accelerate fieldwork, the market remains caught between strengthening export demand and the prospect of a substantial seasonal supply increase.

Market Snapshot

Current Soybean Price Action

Soybean futures have edged lower as traders reduce bullish positions ahead of further US harvest progress. The decline to an eight-week low suggests that expectations of increased near-term availability are currently outweighing the positive implications of renewed Chinese purchases.

Although scattered rainfall temporarily delayed fieldwork in parts of the Midwest, drier conditions expected through the end of the week could allow harvesting to accelerate. As more soybeans enter the market, buyers may have greater access to available supplies, limiting the urgency to bid prices higher.

The market’s ability to stabilise will depend on whether export demand continues to strengthen sufficiently to absorb the additional production coming from the US harvest.

US Soybean Harvest: Supply Pressure Builds

US farmers had harvested 64% of the soybean crop, below trade expectations, according to the USDA’s weekly crop progress report.

The slower-than-expected progress could temporarily delay the arrival of additional supplies. However, the anticipated improvement in weather conditions may allow harvesting to advance more quickly, increasing the flow of newly harvested soybeans into the market.

Faster harvesting would reinforce near-term supply pressure if production expectations remain strong. Conversely, persistent weather disruptions or disappointing yields could limit available volumes and provide support.

For now, the key issue is whether the harvest catches up without significant disruption. The current price weakness suggests traders are preparing for greater availability despite the slower reported progress.

China Soybean Demand: Purchases Provide Support

Chinese demand has strengthened, with the USDA confirming private sales of 114,000 metric tonnes of US soybeans. This brings confirmed purchases to China to 1.472 million tonnes over the past four days.

China has now purchased more than 60% of its 25-million-tonne US soybean buying target for the 2026/27 marketing year, according to the supplied report. The purchases are linked to the trade agreement between the two countries and represent an important development for US export prospects.

However, confirmed sales do not necessarily translate into immediate physical shipments. Traders will be watching whether purchases continue, whether contracts are fulfilled and how quickly the additional demand absorbs US supplies.

The distinction is important: sustained buying and shipment activity would provide stronger support than announcements alone, particularly during a period of accelerating seasonal supply.

Bullish Sentiment: Factors Supporting Soybean Prices

1. Renewed Chinese buying: Confirmed purchases of 1.472 million tonnes over four days signal stronger demand for US soybeans.
2. Progress towards China’s buying target: The reported completion of more than 60% of the 25-million-tonne target highlights the scale of recent purchasing.
3. Potential for further export sales: Continued buying under the trade agreement could support US export demand.
4. Harvest progress below expectations: The reported 64% completion rate may temporarily delay the arrival of additional supplies.
5. Weather-related uncertainty: Further rainfall or harvest disruptions could slow fieldwork and affect the timing of market supply.

Bearish Sentiment: Factors Weighing on Soybean Prices

1. Advancing US harvesting: Faster harvesting could increase near-term soybean availability.
2. Favourable Midwest weather: Drier conditions are expected to accelerate fieldwork and bring more crop into the market.
3. Selling of bullish positions: Investors have been reducing bullish bets, adding pressure to futures.
4. Seasonal supply pressure: The arrival of newly harvested soybeans can weigh on prices if supply increases faster than demand.
5. Uncertainty over realised demand: Confirmed sales must translate into sustained shipments and consumption to offset the pressure from harvest-related supply.

Soybean Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching

Soybeans are facing competing forces, with Chinese purchases providing fundamental support while the US harvest creates near-term selling pressure. The next sustained move will depend on which factor has the greater influence on the supply-demand balance.

Traders will be monitoring three key developments:

• Chinese export sales: Whether additional purchases are confirmed and whether existing contracts translate into actual shipments.
• US harvest progress: Whether drier weather allows harvesting to accelerate and increases the volume of soybeans available.
• Crop production estimates: Whether upcoming assessments confirm expectations for a large crop or reveal any deterioration in yields.

The supplied information does not establish a reliable numerical price target or specific technical support and resistance levels. Further price-history data and updated crop estimates would be needed to assess those levels confidently.

Soybean Supply Outlook

The near-term supply outlook is increasingly influenced by the pace of US harvesting. As fieldwork accelerates, newly harvested soybeans can increase availability for domestic processors and international buyers.

If the crop develops in line with current expectations, seasonal supply pressure may persist. However, stronger Chinese purchasing could help absorb additional volumes and reduce the risk of a prolonged price decline.

The balance between harvest arrivals and export shipments will be crucial. A faster harvest accompanied by weaker export demand would be bearish, while sustained Chinese buying could help stabilise the market.

Demand Outlook

China remains the central demand variable in the current outlook. Its recent purchases provide a positive signal for US exports, particularly given the reported progress towards the 25-million-tonne purchasing target.

However, the market will need evidence of continued buying and shipment activity to determine whether this demand can offset seasonal supply pressure. Any slowdown in purchases could renew concerns about the market’s ability to absorb the US crop.

Demand from other importers and domestic soybean processors will also influence the balance, although the supplied figures do not establish whether those sources of demand are strengthening or weakening.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Soybean futures remain under pressure near $12.50 per bushel, with advancing US harvesting and favourable weather forecasts outweighing renewed Chinese demand.

The recent purchasing figures offer an important counterweight to the bearish supply outlook. If China continues buying and shipments accelerate, export demand could help stabilise prices. However, faster harvesting may keep pressure on futures if the volume of newly available soybeans increases more quickly than demand.

For now, the near-term outlook remains cautious, with a bearish seasonal bias offset by improving Chinese demand. Traders should monitor confirmed export sales, shipment activity and harvest progress to determine whether the market can recover from its eight-week low.

Today Markets Analysis

Today Markets views soybeans as a market balancing substantial seasonal supply pressure against a meaningful improvement in Chinese buying interest.

The confirmed purchases provide support for US export prospects, but the price response suggests traders remain focused on the volume of crop entering the market. The durability of any recovery will depend on whether China continues purchasing at a pace sufficient to absorb additional supplies.

Until the relationship between harvest arrivals and export demand becomes clearer, soybean futures may remain vulnerable to further volatility.

Currency Hedger View

For soybean exporters, agricultural processors, feed manufacturers and international commodity traders, fluctuations in soybean prices can affect procurement costs, contract values and operating margins. Businesses trading across borders may also face foreign-exchange risk when commodity payments are denominated in US dollars but revenue is earned in another currency.

Reviewing currency exposure alongside commodity procurement can help businesses improve budget visibility and manage payment uncertainty. Appropriate foreign-exchange hedging arrangements can reduce exchange-rate uncertainty, although they do not eliminate commodity-price risk or guarantee a particular outcome.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial or hedging advice. Commodity prices are volatile, and market forecasts are not guarantees of future performance. Trading futures and other leveraged instruments involves significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. Businesses should assess their individual circumstances and seek independent professional advice where appropriate.

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