Steel rebar futures fell below CNY 3,120 per ton, pulling back from five-month highs after official data showed China’s steel production sank to a seven-year low in 2025 despite strong exports, highlighting weak domestic demand. Annual output dropped 4.4% to 961 million tons, falling below the 1 billion threshold for the first time since 2019. December production also slid to a two-year low of 68.2 million tons. New home prices extended their decline in December, underscoring persistent strains in the property sector, the largest consumer of steel. The industry also continues to face tighter government restrictions on new capacity as Beijing moves to curb chronic overproduction. Meanwhile, a China Iron & Steel Association survey showed member mills lifted daily output to nearly 2 million tons in early January, though production remains 3.3% below last year’s pace.

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