Steel rebar futures held steady above CNY 3,130 per ton, hovering near six-week highs after data showed Chinese steel output fell 3.6% to about 160 million tons in the first two months of the year as mills curtailed production to offset weak demand. The period also marks a seasonal slowdown for steelmakers due to the Lunar New Year holiday and pollution controls ahead of annual legislative meetings in March. China’s steel sector has been in structural decline as the country’s economy matures, leading to reduced construction activity, further worsened by the prolonged property crisis. Earlier this month, economic planners at the National People’s Congress signaled plans for orderly reductions in steel capacity. Beijing made similar pledges during the 2025 policy meetings, though the results were mixed. The country’s steel output fell below 1 billion tons last year for the first time since 2019, although some analysts questioned the reliability of the official figures.

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