European indices are rising on Tuesday – the STOXX 600 is up by around 0.5%, the DAX is up 0.85% to 24,782 points, and the Euro STOXX 50 is up 1.0%. The gains are mainly driven by the banking sector, which is benefiting from the de-escalation in the Middle East – Iran and Israel have halted mutual attacks, which is improving global sentiment, although caution remains as the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. The market is also pricing in an expected 25-basis-point ECB rate hike at Thursday’s meeting, though it is focusing more on the monetary policy path than on the decision itself. Crude oil is falling sharply – WTI is down 2.44% to $89.02, and Brent (OIL) is down 2.01% to $92.25, reflecting a easing of the geopolitical risk premium. The US dollar is weakening – the USD index is down 0.20%, the EUR/USD pair is rising to 1.1566, and USD/PLN is down 0.29% to 3.66.

The financial sector is leading the gains on the Euro STOXX 50 with a rise of +1.43%, pulling Italian banks and UBS along with it. Consumer Staples (+1.61%), Communications (+0.91%) and Industrials (+0.64%) are also performing well. At the other end of the spectrum, Technology (-0.14%), Energy (-0.10%) and Materials (-0.02%) are performing the worst. Company information

• UBS is up by around 2% and trading at its highest level since 2008 following reports by Reuters that Swiss parliamentarians are considering easing capital requirements for the bank – the new proposals would require foreign subsidiaries to be covered by CET1 capital at a level of 70–80% instead of the government’s 100% requirement, which would reduce the need to raise additional capital from ~$20 billion to around $15 billion.
• GSK is down more than 2% – the biggest drag on the FTSE 100 index – following the announcement of its $10.6 billion takeover of US biotech firm Nuvalent (net of cash, $9.4 billion), representing a 40% premium on the last closing price.
• Intesa Sanpaolo (+2.99%) and UniCredit (+2.11%) are rising on the back of consolidation in the Italian banking sector – Monte dei Paschi di Siena has received two takeover bids from Intesa and Banco BPM. At the same time, Intesa announced the sale of 635 MPS branches, along with the brand, to the insurer Unipol, which allays regulatory concerns regarding competition; MPS gains 2.5%, whilst BPER Banca and Unipol rise by 4.2% and 5.9% respectively.
• Infineon Technologies (IFX.DE) is up 2.70% and has recorded a year-to-date return of 115.6%, consolidating its position as the leader in relative strength within the Euro STOXX 50 as European technology shares stabilise following last week’s correction.

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