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Facts
- As of 11:55 on January 13, silver is trading near its all-time high at USD 85.7 per ounce and is up nearly 20% since the beginning of 2026.
- The COMEX exchange operator, CME Group, has updated the method for setting margin requirements for precious metals: gold, platinum, and silver.
- Instead of quoting a fixed USD amount per contract, CME margins will now be expressed as a percentage of the contract’s notional value; the change will take effect after the market close on January 13, 2026.
- For silver, the margin-to-contract-value ratio has been set at 9%.
- Two weeks ago, the market reacted sharply with declines to the most recent margin increase for silver, which raised the margin by 30%, from USD 25,000 to USD 32,000 per contract.
- According to the Jan 6 CoT report, the Managed Money group held 26,978 long positions and 11,156 short positions (net long: 15,822 contracts), and the weekly increase in net positioning (+1,814 contracts) was driven mainly by a reduction in shorts by 3,936 contracts alongside a decline in longs by 2,122 contracts.
- The Commercials group remained strongly net short by around 51,700 contracts, with 5,147 longs and 30,692 shorts among producers (net: -25,545) and 31,774 longs and 57,920 shorts among swap dealers (net: -26,146).
Recommendation
Open a short position in SILVER at the market price.
- Take profit: USD 80
- Stop loss: USD 87
Opinion
The CME’s increase in margin requirements may prompt part of the market to scale back exposure to silver, particularly larger positions. Most likely, CME will adopt a percentage-based margin framework as the new standard. While CME’s decision may not be strong enough to fully reverse the trend if silver supply remains tight, it can increase short-term volatility, accelerate profit-taking, and “cool” the market. Analyzing the Commitment of Traders report published by the CFTC (data as of January 6), we can see that Commercials (producers directly involved in the market) still hold a very large net short position in silver (over 25,000 contracts) and there is no indication that they have become optimistic about further price gains; their weekly changes look like rebalancing/hedging rather than a meaningful reduction in short exposure.
Meanwhile, Managed Money (large speculators) remains net long, but the increase in their net position is driven mainly by short covering rather than aggressive additions to longs, suggesting a cautious—not unequivocally bullish—stance; there is limited short covering, but no aggressive build-up of bullish exposure. Looking at the silver chart, we potentially see a forming 1:1 correction, where a bearish impulse could push the price back toward the 200-period moving average on the hourly timeframe. We recommend opening a short position in silver at the market price, with a target level at USD 87 per ounce and a protective stop loss at USD 88 per ounce.
SILVER chart (H1 timeframe)
Source: xStation5
Source: xStation5
