The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell about 6 basis points to 4.5% on Tuesday, as investors returned from the long weekend and remained cautiously optimistic that the US and Iran could still reach a near-term agreement, despite recent military strikes and ongoing mixed signals from both sides. Attention is also focused on the Fed’s policy outlook, with markets reassessing expectations for interest rates after the surge in oil prices fuelled inflation concerns. Traders are now pricing in an 80% probability of a rate hike by December, a significant reversal from earlier expectations of two 25bps cuts prior to the US and Iran. The upcoming PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred gauge of price pressures, will provide further clarity on the inflation trajectory and the central bank’s likely policy response.

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