The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up to 4.26% on Friday, following five consecutive sessions of decline, as traders increasingly bet the Fed will cut rates sooner rather than later. Recent PCE data showed price pressures remain limited while consumer spending fell by the most since the start of the year in May. Data released yesterday including a larger-than-expected 0.5% contraction in Q1 GDP and a rise in continuing jobless claims to their highest level since 2021, also supported such bets. Meanwhile, Chair Powell struck a notably dovish tone during recent congressional testimony, suggesting that in the absence of inflationary pressures from tariffs, the Fed would have continued its rate-cutting cycle. Reports also suggested that President Trump may announce his pick for the next Fed Chair as early as September or October, potentially creating a “shadow” leadership structure that could guide monetary policy in a more dovish direction.

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