Societe Generale expects the CBRT to keep the one-week repo rate at 37.0% and maintain a hawkish stance, with effective funding already pushed to 40% via the overnight lending window. The bank notes heavy FX reserve use and liquidity draining to support the Lira and tight conditions. Inflation is seen rising further, with rates likely on hold until at least June and the CBRT’s end-2026 inflation band potentially revised higher.

CBRT seen holding rates and staying hawkish

“In EM, the CBRT is forecast to keep the one-week repo rate unchanged at 37.0% today and deliver a hawkish statement.”

“With the CBRT suspending weekly repo window and shifting funding entirely to the overnight lending window the effective fund rate has shot up by 300bp to 40%.”

“Short selling is banned, and nearly $12bn in FX reserves has been deployed since the start of the ME conflict to manage the depreciation of the Lira below 44.00.”

“The CBRT has also drained $27bn (TRY1.2tn) in excess liquidity to maintain tight conditions.”

“Our house view is for rates to stay on hold at least until June and the CBRT could lift its end-2026 inflation forecast band to a more realistic 20%-24% from 15%-21% earlier.”

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