European natural gas futures rose above €54 per MWh on Thursday after four consecutive days of declines, amid uncertainty over the resolution of the Middle East conflict. While the US insisted negotiations were ongoing to end the hostilities, Iran dismissed the US peace plan and outlined its own conditions instead. The conflict has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, disrupting natural gas flows from the region, while the largest LNG plant in Qatar remains shut, with roughly 17% of its capacity damaged. Europe now faces risks from increased competition with Asia for LNG cargoes, particularly as it seeks to refill its depleted gas storage ahead of the winter season. Currently, Europe’s total gas storages are about 28% full, the lowest level for this time of year since 2022. Major oil companies have warned that if the war drags on, Europe could face energy shortages as soon as April.

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