European natural gas prices rose 3.8% to around €42/MWh as market confidence in a swift supply recovery faded. Renewed attacks in Lebanon and the cancellation of planned talks aimed at solidifying a preliminary US-Iran truce weighed on sentiment. Although an earlier interim agreement between Washington and Tehran had briefly raised expectations of improved flows, shipping data showed no outbound tanker movements from the Persian Gulf on Friday morning after a short-lived increase in activity earlier in the week. Weather also supported prices, with forecasts of high temperatures across Europe expected to boost cooling demand. EU gas storage levels are currently around 45.56% full, compared with 54.38% a year earlier and 14% below the five-year average, while net injections in June are running below seasonal norms. Prices had fallen nearly 20% over the previous week on hopes that a US-Iran agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore LNG flows from the Gulf.

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