The Turkish lira weakened to a fresh record low of 44.5 per USD in April, extending its steady depreciation amid ongoing interventions by the central bank in foreign exchange markets. The central bank’s disinflation strategy has largely relied on maintaining a real lira appreciation, ensuring the currency does not depreciate faster than the pace of monthly inflation. Consumer prices rose by 1.94% mom in March, the slowest increase in three months. Turkish policymakers have responded to the Middle East crisis by tightening liquidity conditions, raising the cost of lira funding, and directing state-run lenders to support the currency in FX markets. In addition, the government has activated a special “sliding scale” mechanism that adjusts fuel taxes in line with oil price movements to limit the pass-through to domestic prices. The central bank left borrowing costs steady in March but money markets are increasingly pricing in a rate hike by the central bank this month.

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