U.S.-Iran war, Bitcoin eyes $70K, $2.2B FTX payout amid $94M token unlocks

• The US and Israel’s war with Iran rages on as Trump renews threats on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure, with risk assets remaining on edge.
• Bitcoin’s early-week rebound targets a return above $70,000 following the sentiment-driven crash to $65,000.
• The defunct FTX exchange is expected to redistribute approximately $2.2 billion to creditors.
• Roughly $94 million in token unlocks this week, led by a $49 million SUI release, could drive market volatility.

The cryptocurrency market is broadly recovering on Monday following the headwinds at the end of last week, which saw Bitcoin (BTC) drop to $65,000 on Sunday. Although the crypto king has rebounded above $67,000, it holds below the $70,000 threshold, which remains a near-term target.

A 1.6% increase in market capitalisation to $2.41 trillion over the last 24 hours, as shown by CoinGecko data, characterises the crypto market’s resilience amid the United States (US) and Israel’s war with Iran.

US-Iran war weighs on market sentiment

US President Donald Trump has renewed threats against Iran’s water and energy infrastructure if a deal to end the war in the Middle East is not reached. According to a report by NBC News, Trump claimed that “great progress has been made” in talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has put a strain on global Oil supplies for weeks now. However, Iran has maintained that the US’s proposals are “unrealistic” and “unreasonable.”

Trump had made it public that his “preference would be to take the oil” in Iran and is deliberating on whether to seize the nation’s crucial Kharg Island. Iran has vowed to protect its sovereignty, warning against a ground invasion even as more US troops arrive in the Middle East.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil price hovers around $100 at the time of writing on Monday, rising from last week’s lows of $84.

Sentiment remains significantly depressed across the crypto market, suggesting that the war could continue to weigh on risk assets. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 8 in the extreme fear territory, matching last week’s levels but slightly lower than the previous month’s 11.

Bitcoin eyes $70,000 breakout

Bitcoin is rising above $67,000 at the time of writing on Monday, but remains within a broader sideways trend, with support roughly at $62,300 and resistance at $76,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44, below the neutral line, suggesting fading bearish momentum rather than a larger breakout.

Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below its signal line on the daily chart, as red histogram bars expand, which could prompt investors to reduce exposure.

A sustained breakout above the $70,000 threshold is required to steady trader interest in XRP, while closing above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) would accelerate a bullish shift with targets at $76,000.

On the downside, the first key support aligns with the weekly open at $66,011. Closing below this demand would expose last week’s low at $65,000, with further declines likely to push Bitcoin toward the range low around $62,300.

FXT confirms $2.2 billion payout

The FTX Recovery Trust is set to distribute $2.2 billion on Tuesday, marking the fourth round of payments toward reimbursing creditors and the defunct exchange’s former customers. According to the platform’s asset recovery site, eligible claimants will receive funds through their chosen provider within one or two business days following the disbursement.

According to reports, this scheduled payout allocates 18% to Dotcom Customer claims, 5% to US Customer Entitlement Claims, and 15% to both Digital Asset Loan Claims and General Unsecured Claims. Moreover, 120% has been allocated to convenience claims under the full recovery plan.

By the end of the fourth schedule, $10 billion would have been paid to creditors and FTX’s former customers. The fifth round is scheduled for May 29. Volatility could increase in the broader crypto market if participants offload the assets across crypto exchanges.

Potential supply shock ahead of $94 million token unlocks

Several token unlocks totaling approximately $94 million are expected this week, which could see volatility surge. On Monday, the largest releases are River (RIVER), Optimism Foundation (OP), and Zora Protocol (ZORA), totaling $3.65 million, $3.51 million, and $2.45 million, respectively.

On Tuesday, notable unlocks include Gunz (GUN), worth $1.35 million, and Starknet Bridge, worth $1.23 million. Eigen Cloud and dYdX stand out among the unlocks on Wednesday, with tokens worth $6.99 million and $188,428, respectively.

The largest unlocks of the week will fall on Thursday, led by $49.17 million from Sui Foundation, $21 million from Portal, and approximately $404,000 from Eigen Cloud.

Only two small unlocks are scheduled for Friday, including Cetus with roughly $231,000 and Celestia with approximately $88,000. As for Sunday, Cheelee will unlock $2.66 million and Celestia approximately $88,000.

Token unlocks represent predictable supply-side events that frequently act as scheduled supply shocks, often driving increased market volatility. Market participants may engage in anticipatory selling ahead of these unlocks. However, the actual impact remains complex, as price effects are sometimes partially or fully priced in prior to the event.

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