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Bonds

UK Gilt Yields Near 19-Year Highs as Inflation Risks Rise

The UK 10-year gilt yield stood at 5.2%, remaining close to 19-year highs as investors increasingly priced in the prospect of further Bank of England rate hikes amid renewed inflation concerns. Brent crude briefly touched $100 a barrel, while UK natural gas prices climbed to their highest level since late 2022 as escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over energy supplies. Markets are fully pricing in a 25 bp BoE rate increase by December, followed by two further hikes in 2027. For the September 17 meeting, however, policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Speaking to lawmakers in Parliament on Tuesday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey sought to push back against the notion that another rate increase is simply a matter of time, stressing that the decision would depend on evolving economic and geopolitical developments. Meanwhile, MPC member Megan Greene warned that a prolonged oil-price shock could lead to more persistent inflation expectations.

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