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Bonds

US 10-Year Yield Approaches 3-Year High

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed above 4.8% on Wednesday, moving toward its highest level since October 2023 as surging oil prices intensified inflation concerns and reinforced expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Oil prices advanced for a third consecutive session amid escalating hostilities between the US and Iran, raising concerns over further disruptions to energy flows from the Middle East. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s commitment to combating inflation strengthened bets for a rate increase, with markets now pricing in around a 70% chance of a move this month. Fed Governor Michael Barr also said on Tuesday that the central bank should be prepared to raise interest rates if inflation fails to ease. Attention now turns to the ADP employment report due Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday for further clues on the Fed’s policy path.

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