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Bonds

US 10-Year Yield Holds Decline

The 10-year US Treasury yield hovered around 4.65% on Friday, holding a recent decline as softer-than-expected inflation data led investors to reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Figures released Thursday showed US producer prices were flat in July, reinforcing Wednesday’s subdued CPI report and suggesting that inflationary pressures remain contained. As a result, the Fed faces less urgency to tighten monetary policy in the near term, with markets now assigning around a 35% probability to a 25 basis point rate increase in September, compared with 55% a week earlier. The data also indicated that the initial inflationary effects of the Middle East conflict and higher energy prices could be losing momentum. Still, uncertainty surrounding efforts to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk to the inflation outlook.

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