The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held around 4.35% on Thursday after a sharp decline in the previous session, as signs that the US and Iran were closing in on an agreement to end the war sent oil prices plunging and eased inflation concerns. Reports indicated that both sides are nearing a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding aimed at formally ending the conflict, potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and setting a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations. However, President Trump cautioned that no deal has yet been finalized, while threatening to resume military strikes if Tehran fails to comply. Oil prices dropped sharply on easing geopolitical risks, helping to reduce inflation fears and lowering pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive policy settings. Meanwhile, the Treasury indicated it will continue front-loading borrowing needs toward shorter-term securities over the coming quarters, signaling no major change in issuance strategy.

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