Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held below 5%, sitting at a two-week low as hopes for a US-Iran peace deal triggered a sharp decline in oil prices and helped ease inflation worries, while disappointing domestic trade figures weighed on sentiment. Australia unexpectedly posted a goods trade deficit of AUD 1.84 billion in March, its first in over eight years, as imports of data centre computing equipment surged, while shipments of fuel also jumped on higher prices. Meanwhile, global oil prices tumbled, easing concerns over inflationary pressures after reports that the US and Iran are moving toward formally ending the conflict, potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz and paving the way for further nuclear talks. On Tuesday, the RBA extended its tightening cycle to a third straight meeting, reinforcing its commitment to returning inflation to the 2–3% target. Markets now see only a 20% chance of another move in June, while a further increase by September remains fully priced.

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