The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held at 4.09% on Friday after rebounding in the previous session, as investors continued to weigh the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy ahead of key inflation data. Markets are currently pricing in an 87% chance that the Fed will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with 2–3 more reductions seen next year. Dovish bets were also supported by reports that economic adviser Kevin Hassett could replace Fed Chair Powell in May, a move seen as signaling a shift toward more aggressive policy easing. Meanwhile, the Challenger report indicated layoffs rose to 71,321 in November, the highest for that month since 2022, while initial jobless claims fell to a more than three-year low last week. Investors now await delayed September data on the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, alongside figures on consumer spending and incomes.

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