The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held around 4.46% on Thursday after rising nearly 5 basis points in the previous session, as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but signaled growing support for rate hikes later this year. Half of FOMC members now expect at least one rate increase, with the central bank sharply raising its inflation forecasts amid the economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to provide guidance on the next policy move but emphasized that inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target for several years and reiterated the central bank’s commitment to restoring price stability. On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump signed an interim agreement to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though it remains unclear whether Iran has already begun steps to fully reopen the key shipping route.

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