US nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 50K in September 2025, up from 22K in August, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are also expected to rise 0.3% for the month, keeping the annual rate unchanged at 4.7%. The September jobs report was originally scheduled for release on October 3rd but was delayed due to the longest federal government shutdown in US history. Meanwhile, the release of the October employment report has been cancelled because household survey data from the Current Population Survey could not be collected during the October 2025 reference period due to a lapse in appropriations. The BLS noted that the household survey cannot be reconstructed or collected retroactively.

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