US GDP Likely Expanded 2.1% in Q2

The US economy likely expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1% in Q2, matching the pace recorded in Q1 and signalling continued resilience despite the conflict in the Middle East, elevated gasoline prices, and the impact of tariffs. Consumer spending is expected to have remained robust, accelerating from the previous quarter as larger tax refunds and the FIFA World Cup provided additional support. Business spending on equipment likely posted another quarter of double-digit growth, driven by continued investment in AI-related technologies. However, investment in structures is expected to have remained weak, contracting for a tenth consecutive quarter, while residential investment likely declined for a sixth straight quarter. Meanwhile, net trade is expected to have weighed on overall growth, possibly subtracting more than one percentage point from GDP.




