US natural gas futures hovered near $3.27/MMBtu after suffering a dramatic 25.7% collapse on Monday, the steepest one-day drop since 1995. The sharp reversal followed a major shift in weather expectations, with forecasts now pointing to much milder, near-normal temperatures across most of the US through mid-February. This change came after around ten days of extreme cold that had driven heating demand to unusually high levels. As temperatures rise, frozen wells are thawing, allowing gas output to rebound quickly. Daily output recently hit 111.6 bcfd, the strongest since January 20. Even so, the recent cold snap likely led to very heavy storage withdrawals, potentially pushing inventories from above seasonal norms to slightly below average by late January. Meanwhile, LNG export flows remain strong, near record levels, limiting how far prices may fall despite the improving supply picture.

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