UBS economist Paul Donovan expects US December retail sales to highlight resilient consumer spending, noting that the roughly 0.8% GDP cost of tariffs has been absorbed through lower savings rates. Combined with rising nominal incomes, this should allow US consumer spending to continue, while import and export price data are seen as less central now that tariff pass-through is better understood.

US retail sales and tariff impact

“US December retail sales data should show the consumer defiantly spending.”

“The roughly 0.8% GDP cost of tariffs has been met by consumers cutting monthly savings rates.”

“That, combined with rising nominal incomes, should allow consumer spending to continue.”

“US import and export prices are due, but these are less of a focus now the narrative about tariff cost pass through has become clear.”

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