S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
Rabobank’s Philip Marey and Kan Ji argue that higher global Oil prices from the Iran conflict will push US inflation higher and keep it more persistent. They expect US CPI to rebound in March, peak at 3.3% in April, average 2.9% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, only easing to 2.5% in the second half of 2028. This reflects a stagflationary supply shock.
Peak at 3.3% then slow decline
“Although the US has become a net exporter of oil and natural gas, the US economy remains sensitive to global oil prices, because domestic fuel prices are closely related.”
“Consequently, we expect inflation to rebound in March.”
“Given Rabobank’s baseline scenario of a slow reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after fighting ends in the second half of April, and in line with our new energy price forecasts, we now expect inflation in the US to peak at 3.3% in April and then gradually fall to 2.5% in the second half of 2028.”
“This means that inflation is more persistent than in our earlier forecasts, with 2.8% inflation in 2027, only slightly lower than the average of 2.9% for 2026.”
“Our earlier simulations show that the upward impact on inflation and the downward impact on GDP growth could be substantially larger in case of even higher energy price trajectories.”
