• USD/CHF remains under pressure as worries grow over the potential economic impact of US tariffs.
• The CME FedWatch Tool suggested the first Fed rate cut to come in July.
• The Swiss Franc gained strength after Switzerland reported better-than-expected Trade Balance figures.

USD/CHF slipped slightly during Friday’s Asian trading hours, hovering around 0.8180, after posting gains in the previous session. The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar weakens amid mounting concerns over the economic fallout from US tariffs. Market activity remains muted due to the Good Friday holiday.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that persistent inflation coupled with a slowing economy could jeopardize the Fed’s dual mandate, raising the specter of stagflation. Sentiment was further dented after former President Trump criticized Powell’s recent comments. Despite this, the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets are now pricing in around 86 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first expected in July.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) strengthened on Thursday following upbeat Trade Balance data from Switzerland. The trade surplus widened to CHF 6.35 billion in March from CHF 4.80 billion in February—the largest since October 2024—driven by a 12.6% surge in exports versus a 10.4% rise in imports.

The CHF gained against the USD, hovering near its strongest level since 2011, as escalating US-China trade tensions fuel recession fears and bolster demand for the safe-haven Swiss currency. However, US President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that China had made multiple overtures and added, “I don’t want to go higher on China tariffs. If China tariffs go higher, people won’t buy.” Trump expressed optimism that a trade agreement with China could be reached within three to four weeks.

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