EUR/USD misses the boat on market-wide tariff relief rally

أسواق الإمارات اليومApril 10, 2025

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EUR/USD couldn’t find the gas pedal on Wednesday, flubbing a broad risk appetite recovery.
The Trump administration has again pivoted away from its own tariffs at the last minute.
Key US inflation and consumer sentiment survey results remain on the docket for the rest of the week.

EUR/USD remains bogged down on the carts, caught in the much between 1.1000 and 1.0900 despite a broad-market recovery in investor risk appetite after the US once again pivoted away from its own tariff policies. US President Donald Trump announced via social media post that his administration would be delaying “reciprocal” tariffs for 90 days, albeit with a 10% across-the-board levy remaining on the cards for the time being. Global investors promptly found the buy button on the news, however, the Euro’s brief rally into the 1.1100 handle quickly evaporated to leave Fiber in familiar congestion territory.

Rate markets have pulled back sharply from their previous expectations of rate cuts, as rate swap traders are currently anticipating 75 basis points of interest rate reductions from the Federal Reserve (Fed) for the rest of the year. While rate markets continue to bet on a quarter-point cut happening in June, analysts at JPMorgan caution that it is more probable the Fed will continue its wait-and-see phase due to tariff uncertainties, and will likely continue to do so until at least September.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data is due out on Thursday, while Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index results will be released on Friday. This will represent the final set of significant US inflation and sentiment figures from the ‘pre-tariff’ period of 2025, serving as critical benchmarks for the remainder of the year.

EUR/USD price forecast

EUR/USD cut off a two-day losing streak this week, marking in a near-term technical support level near 1.0900. However, bidding pressure remains thin, and a mild push from the short side could easily push Fiber back to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just south of 1.0700.

Despite a sharp recovery by the Euro through March, a stiff resistance zone remains priced in between 1.1100 and 1.1000.