Wheat futures eased to around $6 per bushel, down from a three-week high of $6.13 on June 17, as crude oil declined and tanker traffic continued through the Strait of Hormuz amid progress in US–Iran talks, reducing war-risk premiums. Weaker oil also points to cheaper ocean freight, which may further pressure delivered wheat values. In the European Union, exporters face a tougher outlook as Morocco is set to import less after a drought recovery, while Black Sea suppliers remain highly competitive. Competition from lower-cost exporters such as Russia and Ukraine continues to cap prices, alongside weakening demand from Algeria and China. Argentina and Australia are expected to produce less, while strong crops in Russia and Ukraine, as well as firmer output in Turkey and Syria, could intensify competition. Meanwhile, Egypt has purchased 4.7 million tons of wheat and is on track to meet its 5 million-ton target, backing its subsidised bread program.

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