Wheat futures jumped more than 2% to above $5.20 per bushel, reaching their highest level since late September, fueled by renewed optimism over US-China trade negotiations. Investors are now focused on the Thursday meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping, expected to finalize the framework of a preliminary deal discussed over the weekend. On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration expects China to resume substantial purchases of US soybeans over several years, while delaying its expanded rare-earth licensing regime by a year following two days of trade talks in Malaysia. Despite the rally, wheat gains remain limited due to ample global supply. Russian consultancy SovEcon raised its 2025 wheat production forecast for Russia—one of the world’s top exporters—to 87.8 million metric tons, citing record yields in Siberia. Meanwhile, Argentina is projected to produce 23 million tonnes, matching its record 2021–22 output.

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