Wheat futures fell to around $5.80 per bushel in mid-June, returning to their lowest level since April 10, as the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could improve the availability of key agricultural inputs. The tentative US–Iran peace agreement included the reopening of the strategic waterway, with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirming the deal and officials from both sides expected to meet in Switzerland to formalise it. Greater availability of key agricultural inputs in wheat production, such as fertilisers and fuels, allows farmers to produce more efficiently, increasing supply and prompting downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the USDA recently cut its winter wheat outlook by 2% from a month earlier, citing drought conditions across the Plains that pushed hard red winter wheat output to its lowest level since 1957. Crop conditions have also weakened further, with just 25% rated good-to-excellent, the lowest level for this time of year on record.

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