Wheat futures rose above $5.9 per bushel in mid-June, climbing off a recent two-month low, as US supply concerns intensified following a fresh downgrade to the winter wheat crop outlook. The USDA cut its US winter wheat outlook by 2% from a month earlier as a harsh Plains drought pushed hard red winter wheat production to its lowest level since 1957, while crop conditions deteriorated further with just 25% rated good-to-excellent, the weakest for this time of year on record. The decline in US output has tightened supply expectations, even as harvest activity gets underway across key growing states including Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. El Niño weather risks continued to underpin prices, raising the threat of droughts, floods and temperature extremes across major global growing regions. The drop in output has also added pressure on US farmers already facing higher fuel and fertilizer costs, driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and trade tensions stemming from US tariff measures.

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