S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
WTI Price Forecast: Bears have the upper hand below 23.6% Fibo. and 200-hour SMA
- WTI struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s move higher amid mixed fundamental cues.
- Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and higher output act as a headwind for the commodity.
- Middle East uncertainties support the black liquid, though the technical setup favors bears.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, though it lacks follow-through as traders await further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis.
Investors remain hopeful about potential behind-the-scenes efforts to secure a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, reduced risks of further escalation of Middle East tensions ahead of the US-China summit next week fail to assist the black liquid to capitalize on the previous day’s positive move. In fact, US officials recently downplayed the need for further military strikes against Iran. Adding to this, higher OPEC+ output, along with increased production from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, contributes to capping crude oil prices.
However, the geopolitical risk premium is back in play after US President Donald Trump issued a fresh warning to Iran, saying that those responsible for any attack on American officials would no longer exist. Moreover, attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure and the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz act as a tailwind for crude oil prices. In fact, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator, stated that the critical waterway will never return to its status prior to the US-Israel war on Iran.
From a technical perspective, the black liquid stays under the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $88.04 and the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $89.18. Moreover, momentum indicators suggest that upside attempts could continue to struggle beneath the overhead resistance levels, which reinforces a bearish near-term bias. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.75 suggests mildly constructive momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is flattening just below the zero line.
Meanwhile, initial resistance is seen at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $88.04, followed by the 200-period SMA at $89.18, with deeper barriers aligning at the 38.2% level around $91.11 and the 50.0% level at $93.60. On the downside, the primary structural support is the cycle low anchor around $83.06. A break below this zone would likely reinforce the current bearish bias, while sustained trading above $87.00 but below $88.04 would keep crude oil prices confined in a consolidative, downside-skewed range.
WTI 1-hour chart
