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- AUD/JPY edges higher to around 113.10 in Friday’s early European session.
- The cross keeps a positive tone above the 100-day EMA, with the RSI pointing to neutral but slightly positive momentum.
- The immediate resistance level emerges at 113.30; the initial support level to watch is 111.10.
The AUD/JPY cross holds positive ground near 113.10 during the early European session on Friday. The cross remains firm after pulling back from a multi-decade high of 114.72. However, the potential upside for AUD/JPY might be limited amid intervention fears.
Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, on Friday declined to confirm the Japanese Yen (JPY) intervention directly but delivered a pointed warning to speculators, noting that Japan’s Golden Week holidays have just started and that there is no change to his view that market moves remain speculative in nature.
On the other hand, a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could underpin the Aussie. Australian headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation climbed to 4.6% YoY in March, primarily due to fuel price shocks linked to ongoing Middle East conflicts. While the figure was slightly below the 4.7% forecast, it remains well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range, keeping pressure on the central bank to hike rates.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY keeps a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the lower Bollinger Band. Price is testing the Bollinger 20-day simple moving average (SMA) pivot at 113.30, suggesting ongoing upside interest after the recent pullback, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 points to neutral but slightly positive momentum rather than overbought conditions.
On the topside, a sustained break above the Bollinger mid-line at 113.30 would open the way toward the April 28 high of 114.72, en route to the upper Bollinger Band of 115.45. On the downside, initial demand is seen at the lower Bollinger Band near 111.10, ahead of stronger, medium-term support at the 100-day EMA around 109.30, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if a deeper correction unfolds.
