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Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell around 5% as oil prices retreated following a pause in the US-Iran conflict. The US suspended its nearly two-week campaign of strikes against Iran beginning late Friday, while Tehran said it had ended its retaliatory attacks and held talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. Still, yields remained near a two-month high as concerns over persistent price pressures in Australia linger. The second-quarter CPI report, due on Wednesday, is expected to show core inflation rose 0.9% in the quarter, lifting the annual rate to 3.7% from 3.5%. The anticipated reading would remain well above the RBA’s 2%–3% target range, reinforcing bets that policymakers will maintain a tightening bias. Markets currently imply a 40% chance the RBA will lift the 4.35% cash rate in August, with a move by November almost fully priced. Elsewhere, focus is on the upcoming monetary policy meeting by the US Federal Reserve, where rates are expected to be left on hold.
