Australia’s 10-year government bond yield dropped below 4.8%, hitting over a three-month low after a US–Iran interim peace deal eased global inflation concerns, while markets widely expect the Reserve Bank will hold policy rates this week. A series of softer economic releases, from GDP to housing prices, reinforced signs that the central bank’s three rate hikes earlier this year began to filter through the economy. Market pricing now ruled out a move at the June meeting, while bets for an August rate hike have eased sharply to around 35%, down from more than 80% a month ago. The May CPI report due on June 24, will be pivotal as policymakers look for clearer evidence that price pressures remain strong. Meanwhile, the US and Iran reportedly reached a peace agreement, sending oil prices lower, easing inflation and rate-hike expectations. The deal, set to be signed in Switzerland on June 19, includes sanctions relief for Iran, lifting blockades, and dismantling Tehran’s nuclear program.

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